Economic and financial modeling and planning is commonly used to estimate or predict the performance and outcome of real systems, given specific sets of input data of interest. An economic-based system will have many variables and influences which determine its behavior. A model is a mathematical expression or representation which predicts the outcome or behavior of the system under a variety of conditions. In one sense, it is relatively easy to review historical data, understand its past performance, and state with relative certainty that past behavior of the system was indeed driven by the historical data. A more difficult task is to generate a mathematical model of the system, which predicts how the system will behave with different sets of data and assumptions.
In its basic form, the economic model can be viewed as a predicted or anticipated outcome of a system defined by a mathematical expression and driven by a given set of input data and assumptions. The mathematical expression is formulated or derived from principles of probability and statistics, often by analyzing historical data and corresponding known outcomes, to achieve a best fit of the expected behavior of the system to other sets of data. In other words, the model should be able to predict the outcome or response of the system to a specific set of data being considered or proposed, within a level of confidence, or an acceptable level of uncertainty.
Economic modeling has many uses and applications. One area in which modeling has been applied is in the retail environment. Grocery stores, general merchandise stores, specialty shops, and other retail outlets face stiff competition for limited consumers and business. Most, if not all, retail stores expend great effort to maximize sales, revenue, and profit. Economic modeling can be an effective tool in helping store owners and managers forecast and optimize business decisions. Yet, as an inherent reality of commercial transactions, the benefits bestowed on the retailer often come at a cost or disadvantage to the consumer. Maximizing sales and profits for a retailer does not necessarily expand competition and achieve the lowest price for the consumer.
On the other side of the transaction, the consumers are interested in quality, low prices, comparative product features, convenience, and receiving the most value for the money. Economic modeling can also be an effective tool in helping consumers achieve these goals. However, consumers have a distinct disadvantage in attempting to compile models for their benefit. Retailers have ready access to the historical transaction log (T-LOG) sales data, consumers do not. The advantage goes to the retailer. The lack of access to comprehensive, reliable, and objective product information essential to providing effective comparative shopping services restricts the consumer's ability to find the lowest prices, compare product features, and make the best purchase decisions.
For the consumer, some comparative product information can be gathered from various electronic and paper sources, such as online websites, paper catalogs, and media advertisements. However, such product information is sponsored by the retailer and slanted at best, typically limited to the specific retailer offering the product and presented in a manner favorable to the retailer. That is, the product information released by the retailer is subjective and incomplete, i.e., the consumer only sees what the retailer wants the consumer to see. For example, the pricing information may not provide a comparison with competitors for similar products. The product descriptions may not include all product features or attributes of interest to the consumer.
Alternatively, the consumer can visit all retailers offering a particular type of product and record the various prices, product descriptions, and retailer amenities to make a purchase decision. The brute force approach of one person physically traveling to or otherwise researching each retailer for all product information is impractical for most people. Many people do compare multiple retailers, e.g., when shopping online, particularly for high ticket items. Yet, the time people are willing to spend reviewing product information decreases rapidly with price. Little time is spent reviewing commodity items. In any case, the consumer has limited time to do comparative shopping and mere searching does not constitute an optimization of the purchasing decision. Optimization requires access to data, i.e., comprehensive, reliable, efficient, and objective product information, so the consumer remains hampered in achieving a level playing field with the retailer.
Another purpose of economic modeling is to develop a marketing plan for the retailer. The retailer may use a mass marketing campaign through a media outlet, such as a newspaper, television, and radio to promote products. A traditional mass marketing approach commonly employs a one-price-fits-all marketing strategy. The retailer puts out an advertisement to the general public, e.g., newspaper ad for a sale or discounted price on a product. Anyone and everyone that responds to the advertisement can purchase the product at the stated advertised sale price.
Marketing segmentation involves identifying and targeting specific market segments that are more likely to be interested in purchasing the retailer's products. Mass marketing generally does not lend itself to focused market segmentation, other than possibly the type of publication and geographic area where the advertisement is published. If the newspaper is a local fitness publication made available outside health oriented stores, then primarily only the consumers with an interest in fitness who might pick up the fitness publication will see the advertisement. Nonetheless, every fitness oriented consumer who acts on the advertisement receives the same sale or discounted price on the product.
In a highly competitive market, the profit margin is paper thin and consumers and products are becoming more differentiated. Consumers are often well informed through electronic media and will have appetites only for specific products. Retailers must understand and act upon the market segment which is tuned into their niche product area to make effective use of marketing dollars. The traditional mass marketing approach using gross market segmentation is insufficient to accurately predict consumer behavior across the various market segments. A more refined market strategy is needed to help focus resources on specific market segments that have the greatest potential of achieving a positive purchasing decision by the consumer for a product directed to that particular market segment. The retailers remain motivated to optimize marketing strategy, particularly pricing strategy, to maximize profit and revenue.